Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C0 0xc01f…cd8e politics 230 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$973 (-0%) realized +$1,550 · open −$2,523
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate37%70W / 118L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,304per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$23,100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 120d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$9,338
world 40% +$3,036
other 15% −$1,034
crypto 3% −$2,407
culture 0% −$53
economics 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -21.8% -29.3% 41% 26% +8.2%
≤30d 49 -35.8% -41.9% 35% 22% -0.6%
≤90d 134 -31.1% -37.7% 34% 18% -19.9%
all 188 -31.6% -38.1% 37% 19% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 19% -12.0%
10% -44.0% 15% -20.4%
15% -49.5% 12% -28.1%
20% -54.4% 10% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$1,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$355 vs −$274 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$23,100
Realized+$1,550
Unrealized−$2,523
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses70 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions99
Markets (closed)188 / 230
History coverage120d
Avg bet$1,304
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 99 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $4,000 $4,770 +$770 (+19%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 90¢ $3,500 $4,213 +$713 (+20%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 81¢ 94¢ $1,900 $2,205 +$305 (+16%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $2,000 $2,056 +$56 (+3%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 85¢ $2,000 $2,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $2,511 $1,551 −$960 (-38%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 62¢ 67¢ $1,000 $1,085 +$85 (+9%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $500 $695 +$195 (+39%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $500 $521 +$21 (+4%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 44¢ 44¢ $500 $506 +$6 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $500 $487 −$13 (-3%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 14¢ $455 $335 −$120 (-26%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $200 $321 +$121 (+60%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $300 $272 −$28 (-9%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $200 $254 +$54 (+27%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $130 $182 +$52 (+40%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $62 $168 +$106 (+171%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $245 $166 −$80 (-32%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $150 $122 −$28 (-19%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 44¢ 100¢ $50 $113 +$63 (+127%)
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $13 $108 +$95 (+709%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 36¢ 26¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $34 $54 +$20 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vladimir Prebilič be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Matjaž Han be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zoran Stevanović be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Luka Mesec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 17 $2,017 +$18 +1%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $103 +$220 +214%
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $209 +$253 +121%
Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $107 +$76 +71%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $1,154 +$364 +32%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $6,591 +$3,505 +53%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $152 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 16 $107 −$61 -57%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $1,003 +$65 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 14 $213 −$31 -14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$7 -14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $1,500 +$64 +4%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? Jun 12 $3,031 +$1,005 +33%
Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives Jun 12 $224 +$174 +78%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 12 $3,724 −$815 -22%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3,007 +$174 +6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 04 $206 +$271 +132%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? May 31 $300 +$30 +10%
Will Paloma Valencia place 3rd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $41 −$35 -83%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $3,316 −$733 -22%
Will Robert Menendez Jr. be the Democratic nominee for NJ-08? May 31 $18 −$17 -96%
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 May 31 $208 −$160 -77%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $36 −$22 -61%
Will AD+PD win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $25 −$11 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $50 −$19 -38%
Kash Patel out by December 31? May 26 $507 −$59 -12%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele May 25 $155 −$150 -97%
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e May 25 $401 +$26 +6%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $2,000 +$244 +12%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,522 +$546 +36%
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary May 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Joyce Marie Griggs be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? May 19 $39 −$39 -98%
Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election May 19 $165 −$160 -97%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $2,090 −$1,664 -80%
Will Kandiss Taylor be the Republican nominee for GA-01? May 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $2,012 4h
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $509 12h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $1,000 13h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 81¢ $2,035 15h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $178 36h
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY No 24¢ $103 38h
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $2,879 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $139 38h
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY No 22¢ $103 38h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY No 31¢ $103 38h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 44¢ $51 39h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 39h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 37¢ $62 39h
Will Jed Cochran be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 39h
Will Nathan Butterfield be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 39h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 42h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 72¢ $152 42h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 43h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 25¢ $151 45h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $46 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $139 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,010 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $44 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $213 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $43 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,100.41 · official $23,090.43 (match) · 959 history records