trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | Jun 14 | $26 | −$18 | -70% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 14 | $1,267 | −$4,340 | -343% |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | Jun 14 | $1,404 | −$1,398 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $49 | −$49 | -100% |
| Will Pete Ricketts be the Republican nominee for Senate in Nebraska? | Jun 14 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $7,750 | −$7,256 | -94% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? | Jun 14 | $395 | −$399 | -101% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | Jun 14 | $1,353 | −$1,353 | -100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 14 | $1,271 | −$1,259 | -99% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | Jun 14 | $215 | −$215 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $373 | −$950 | -254% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $5,022 | −$6,219 | -124% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | Jun 14 | $660 | −$591 | -90% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | Jun 14 | $134 | −$128 | -95% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Jun 14 | $581 | −$794 | -137% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | Jun 14 | $996 | −$1,757 | -176% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 14 | $480 | −$480 | -100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 14 | $3,739 | −$3,524 | -94% |
| Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? | Jun 14 | $305 | −$305 | -100% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $5,745 | +$25 | +0% |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Jun 11 | $1,782 | +$6,631 | +372% |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | Jun 11 | $17,818 | +$24,795 | +139% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 10 | $2,760 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $21,237 | +$860 | +4% |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Jun 08 | $991 | +$3 | +0% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $4,985 | +$515 | +10% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 26 | -50.6% | -55.3% | 23% | 8% | -1.1% |
| ≤30d | 26 | -50.6% | -55.3% | 23% | 8% | -1.1% |
| ≤90d | 26 | -50.6% | -55.3% | 23% | 8% | -1.1% |
| all | 26 | -50.6% | -55.3% | 23% | 8% | -1.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -55.3% | 8% | -1.1% |
| 10% | -59.6% | 8% | -10.5% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -63.5% | 8% | -19.2% |
| 20% | -67.1% | 8% | -27.1% |