Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:12:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C0
0xc021…5613
crypto · 96 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$169 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$91 · open −$78
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$290
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses44 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions26
Markets (closed)70 / 96
History coverage83d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 26 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 77¢ 84¢ $43 $47 +$4 (+9%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Yes 73¢ 12¢ $102 $16 −$86 (-84%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+110%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+30%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 54¢ 66¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+38%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 46¢ 17¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-63%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 81¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -13%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 17 $16 +$10 +61%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $3 +$1 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $32 +$7 +23%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Apr 18 $5 +$1 +29%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? Apr 16 $15 +$5 +30%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? Apr 16 $40 +$15 +38%
Spain snap election called in 2026? Apr 15 $3 $0 +10%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 10 $1 −$3 -200%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 01 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 01 $4 −$4 -93%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $17 +$3 +21%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $23 +$5 +22%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 30 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 30 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 29 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 29 $13 −$13 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 29 $15 +$6 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 29 $13 −$13 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 29 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 29 $15 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 29 $15 +$6 +43%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 28 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 28 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$2 +30%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$2 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 28 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 28 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 28 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 28 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 28 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 28 $17 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 28 $18 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 50% −$66
politics 13% −$70
other 12% −$4
world 10% +$24
weather 7% −$65
economics 6% +$15
finance 1% +$3
sports 0% −$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 18m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 30m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 1h
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $6 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 7h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 13h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 45d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 51d
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $6 54d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 57d
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? BUY Yes 68¢ $0 57d
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 57d
Spain snap election called in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $4 57d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 58d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 58d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 58d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $6 63d
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 63d
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 64d
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 64d
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 64d
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? BUY No 77¢ $15 64d
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 64d
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 64d
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 64d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 67d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 71d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 3 +17.5% +6.3% 67% 33% +19.6%
≤90d 70 -19.3% -27.0% 63% 39% -17.7%
all 70 -19.3% -27.0% 63% 39% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 39% -17.7%
10% -34.0% 19% -25.6%
15% -40.4% 11% -32.8%
20% -46.2% 4% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.48 · official $290.48 (match) · 339 history records