Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc02b…ab4f crypto 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,015 (-39%) realized −$6,665 · open −$350
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%35W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$141
14 days+$141
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$5,897
world 8% −$1,446
other 7% +$53
sports 3% −$237
politics 2% −$72
economics 1% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +26.6% +14.6% 56% 56% +2.1%
≤30d 9 +26.6% +14.6% 56% 56% +2.1%
≤90d 9 +26.6% +14.6% 56% 56% +2.1%
all 152 -44.8% -50.1% 23% 23% -48.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.1% 23% -48.2%
10% -54.9% 21% -53.1%
15% -59.2% 20% -57.7%
20% -63.2% 18% -61.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$99 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,665
Unrealized−$350
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses35 / 117
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)152 / 156
History coverage145d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Yes 38¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 43¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $255 −$161 -63%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $46 +$34 +73%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $51 +$126 +246%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $102 +$297 +290%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $513 +$86 +17%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $103 +$10 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Alex Baena: 1+ assists Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $400 −$400 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9AM ET Feb 25 $50 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 25 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 25 $50 +$73 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 25 $150 −$148 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8AM ET Feb 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 25 $150 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 25 $150 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 25 $150 +$141 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 25 $150 +$351 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 25 $50 +$80 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$125 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 25 $50 +$157 +313%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 25 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 25 $167 −$166 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3AM ET Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 25 $82 −$81 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2AM ET Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Alex Baena: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $102 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $79 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $177 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $399 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals SELL No 100¢ $599 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $413 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $87 1h
Nico Williams: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $102 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY No 83¢ $101 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals SELL Yes 47¢ $109 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $103 3h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $102 3h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $103 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $204 3h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $102 3h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $46 4h
Alex Baena: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $51 4h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $51 4h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 43¢ $51 4h
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 113d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $50 113d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 113d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $23 114d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $127 114d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 114d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 115d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $43 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.49 · official $0.49 (match) · 428 history records