Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C0 0xc02f…5ab7 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,521 (-26%) realized −$1,576 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$454
politics 49% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -9.7% -18.3% 43% 43% -0.9%
≤30d 23 -17.6% -25.4% 39% 39% -4.5%
≤90d 23 -17.6% -25.4% 39% 39% -4.5%
all 23 -17.6% -25.4% 39% 39% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 39% -4.5%
10% -32.6% 35% -13.7%
15% -39.1% 35% -22.0%
20% -45.1% 30% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$117 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$576
Realized−$1,576
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)23 / 30
History coverage76d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 30¢ 50¢ $100 $167 +$67 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 45¢ 50¢ $132 $149 +$17 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 36¢ 50¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 5¢ 50¢ $10 $99 +$89 (+890%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-22%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $139 $5 −$134 (-96%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $313 −$313 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $56 +$44 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$96 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $207 +$183 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $819 +$124 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $759 +$403 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $49 +$21 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 22 $331 +$934 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $19 +$24 +129%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 22 $534 −$512 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$35 +79%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $483 −$298 -62%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 01 $128 −$128 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $137 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 14m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $207 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $808 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $759 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $1,265 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $21 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $18 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 1¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $45 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.57 · official $575.57 (match) · 91 history records