Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc030…0098 crypto 14 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+13%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.3% -8.4% 64% 50% -2.2%
≤30d 14 +1.3% -8.4% 64% 50% -2.2%
≤90d 14 +1.3% -8.4% 64% 50% -2.2%
all 14 +1.3% -8.4% 64% 50% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 50% -2.2%
10% -17.1% 29% -11.6%
15% -25.1% 29% -20.1%
20% -32.5% 21% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records