Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc030…1398 weather 426 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$519 (+34%) realized +$519 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%88W / 337L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$2
14 days−$16
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% +$472
crypto 12% −$10
other 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -0.5% -9.9% 38% 26% -9.9%
≤30d 126 -17.8% -25.6% 19% 15% -15.8%
≤90d 395 -2.1% -11.5% 15% 13% -18.4%
all 425 -1.9% -11.3% 21% 13% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 13% -17.4%
10% -19.8% 12% -25.3%
15% -27.5% 11% -32.5%
20% -34.6% 10% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×6.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$519
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses88 / 337
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)425 / 426
History coverage98d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $9 +$5 +60%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +390%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $49 −$6 -11%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$5 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$4 +67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$4 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 08 $6 +$6 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$3 -78%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 4h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 4h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 55¢ $13 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 1930 history records