Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc033…e8c7 world 60 markets active 3h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$5
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$14
other 26% −$3
sports 16% +$3
economics 9% $0
politics 6% +$5
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.9% -11.2% 11% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 28 -4.3% -13.5% 18% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 38 -3.1% -12.3% 18% 0% -9.8%
all 59 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 5% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 5% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 5% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 42
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage524d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $75 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -17%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $130 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $68 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $32 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $32 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $42 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $7 −$2 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $45 −$9 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $42 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $252 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $256 +$1 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $246 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $247 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $110 +$10 +9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $6 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 19 $8 $0 +0%
UCLA vs. Indiana Mar 04 $4 +$4 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $26 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $16 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $16 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $33 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $32 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $27 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $5 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 205 history records