Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C0 0xc034…1ae4 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 371d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$365 (-12%) realized −$333 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,573
7 days+$1,411
14 days+$1,411
30 days+$1,411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$394
economics 30% −$931
world 17% +$155
sports 13% +$705
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +89.0% +71.0% 33% 33% +162.3%
≤30d 6 +89.0% +71.0% 33% 33% +162.3%
≤90d 6 +89.0% +71.0% 33% 33% +162.3%
all 10 +26.4% +14.4% 30% 30% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 30% +3.9%
10% +3.4% 30% -6.0%
15% -6.6% 20% -15.1%
20% -15.7% 20% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +190% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$601 vs −$207 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized−$333
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage371d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $500 $468 −$32 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$25 -80%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $307 +$718 +234%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $154 +$929 +604%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$13 -24%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -97%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 04 $831 −$831 -100%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? Jul 13 $352 −$279 -79%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 24 $515 +$155 +30%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,025 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 3h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $510 17h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 27h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 4¢ $39 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $154 2d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $250 325d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 9¢ $81 326d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 9¢ $250 326d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 9¢ $250 326d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? BUY Yes 62¢ $140 347d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 351d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? BUY Yes 48¢ $120 356d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? SELL No 96¢ $670 366d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY No 75¢ $442 367d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 367d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY No 67¢ $73 368d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? SELL Yes 50¢ $73 368d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? BUY Yes 57¢ $82 371d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.80 · official $467.80 (match) · 25 history records