Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc036…30d4 sports 1336 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,066 (-24%) realized −$5,053 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%841W / 478L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day98.3pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$503
crypto 17% −$335
other 9% −$25
world 0% −$20
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 284 -14.5% -22.6% 55% 51% -15.7%
≤30d 1319 -7.3% -16.1% 64% 52% -13.3%
≤90d 1319 -7.3% -16.1% 64% 52% -13.3%
all 1319 -7.3% -16.1% 64% 52% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 52% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 35% -21.6%
15% -31.5% 23% -29.1%
20% -38.2% 14% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$5,053
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses841 / 478
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1319 / 1336
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day98.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 76¢ 68¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Bernard Tomic 83¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Yi Zhou 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage ex-RUBY 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Clutchain 72¢ 68¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 60¢ 80¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Brandon Nakashima 63¢ 84¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 66¢ 87¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Raphael Perot 58¢ 75¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 52¢ 53¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Carlo Alberto Caniato 77¢ 46¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 74¢ 16¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 60¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 67¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $5 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $5 +$2 +43%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $5 +$3 +53%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $5 +$3 +66%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Aurora Corvi vs Amelie Justine Hejtmanek Jun 16 $5 +$3 +58%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$6 -23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 +$6 +15%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 +$20 +55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $61 −$6 -9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -66%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$10 -48%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $10 +$6 +61%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $25 −$6 -22%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu SELL Daniel Jade 100¢ $14 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 4m
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 100¢ $7 5m
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 72¢ $10 6m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $7 11m
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 100¢ $7 11m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 63¢ $10 11m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 52¢ $5 34m
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand BUY Raphael Perot 58¢ $5 43m
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon SELL Raphael Collignon 100¢ $11 45m
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 91¢ $10 52m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $5 52m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Brandon Nakashima 63¢ $5 53m
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 83¢ $10 53m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 99¢ $7 58m
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 99¢ $8 58m
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire SELL Michele Ribecai 99¢ $8 58m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta SELL Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $11 58m
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 60¢ $5 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 77¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $13 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 91¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 74¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 69¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $7 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 50¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 59¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 67¢ $5 1h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta BUY Max Alcala Gurri 89¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 74¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.68 · official $115.91 (match) · 3500 history records