Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc036…2b99 crypto 445 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$427 (-2%) realized −$359 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%219W / 222L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$920
7 days−$540
14 days−$39
30 days−$780
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$212
crypto 41% −$424
weather 12% −$90
other 1% −$178
politics 1% +$2
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +15.6% +4.6% 73% 69% -17.6%
≤30d 205 -20.1% -27.7% 53% 48% -14.3%
≤90d 441 -9.9% -18.5% 50% 47% -14.2%
all 441 -9.9% -18.5% 50% 47% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 47% -14.2%
10% -26.3% 43% -22.4%
15% -33.4% 33% -29.9%
20% -40.0% 21% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$359
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses219 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions4
Markets (closed)441 / 445
History coverage75d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $220 $148 −$72 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? No 66¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? No 70¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +51%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,209 −$1,200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$55 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$31 +49%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,213 +$126 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$89 +86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $180 −$146 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$126 +121%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$37 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $209 −$145 -69%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $931 +$122 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$8 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +103%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $149 +$51 +34%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $43 +$137 +319%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $745 +$160 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $17 +$6 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$100 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $224 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1,209 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $133 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $97 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $42 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $13 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $13 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $8 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $1,076 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $98 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $6 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $28 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $79 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $24 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $21 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.07 · official $174.07 (match) · 1064 history records