Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:54:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc037…c387 other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,656 (-13%) realized −$1,652 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate68%62W / 29L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days+$190
14 days−$1,581
30 days−$1,581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$1,615
other 29% −$94
sports 18% +$11
economics 2% +$8
politics 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -10.1% -18.6% 42% 33% -1.7%
≤30d 42 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 29% -24.4%
≤90d 49 -7.6% -16.4% 49% 31% -24.2%
all 91 -4.1% -13.3% 68% 24% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 24% -22.2%
10% -21.6% 14% -29.7%
15% -29.1% 14% -36.5%
20% -36.1% 14% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$109 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized−$1,652
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses62 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage560d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $220 $218 −$2 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $220 $218 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $223 +$226 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $223 −$220 -98%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 18 $130 +$10 +8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $223 +$226 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $31 +$48 +158%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $223 −$220 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $494 +$2 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $30 +$33 +109%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $31 +$112 +365%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $223 +$228 +102%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $31 +$38 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $223 −$220 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $337 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$27 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $31 +$38 +124%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$85 +414%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $556 +$7 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $1,420 −$864 -61%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,298 +$122 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,218 +$80 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $2,099 −$884 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $74 −$73 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $69 +$5 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $63 +$5 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $57 +$7 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $43 +$5 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 04 $144 −$144 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $223 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $223 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $31 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $31 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $223 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $223 2d
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL Yes 84¢ $140 2d
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 78¢ $130 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $20 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $20 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $20 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 4d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $223 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $223 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $494 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $223 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY No 100¢ $221 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.60 · official $435.60 (match) · 169 history records