trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $21 | $18 | −$3 (-15%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 12¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+12%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-11%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-12%) |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 65¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Spurs | 47¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $51 | −$37 | -73% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 10 | $30 | −$30 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $31 | +$47 | +153% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $26 | +$31 | +117% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 01 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $22 | +$28 | +129% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $10 | +$10 | +99% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -6.8% | -15.7% | 33% | 33% | -26.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +15.5% | +4.5% | 50% | 50% | -3.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +15.5% | +4.5% | 50% | 50% | -3.4% |
| all | 8 | +15.5% | +4.5% | 50% | 50% | -3.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +4.5% | 50% | -3.4% |
| 10% | -5.5% | 50% | -12.7% |
| 15% | -14.6% | 50% | -21.1% |
| 20% | -23.0% | 50% | -28.8% |