Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc03b…f54a other 125 markets active 2d ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$10
politics 26% −$7
sports 14% −$46
crypto 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 124 -3.3% -12.5% 10% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 4% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 112
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage120d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $187 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $92 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $205 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $90 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $83 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $89 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $278 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $245 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $91 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $266 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $86 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $333 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $301 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $331 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $331 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $186 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $9 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $15 3d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $90 18d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $90 21d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $72 21d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $72 21d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $83 22d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $83 22d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 22d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 23d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.00 · official $8.00 (match) · 366 history records