Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C0 0xc03c…a52d crypto 541 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$177 (-4%) realized −$209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate57%310W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$210
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 -17.5% -25.4% 58% 16% -12.2%
≤30d 289 -17.5% -25.4% 58% 16% -12.2%
≤90d 302 -17.0% -24.9% 59% 18% -11.8%
all 540 -16.4% -24.4% 57% 34% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 34% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 27% -23.0%
15% -38.2% 20% -30.4%
20% -44.3% 13% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses310 / 230
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)540 / 541
History coverage101d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 540 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $96 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $112 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $66 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $68 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.78 (match) · 2864 history records