Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc03c…50af world 5 markets active 5h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$190,084 (+3249%) realized +$212,647 · open −$22,563
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%4W / 49L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,170per market
Trades / day1101.0pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2,348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$22,336
world 10% −$32
politics 7% −$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +23.9% +12.1% 8% 8% -91.5%
≤30d 53 +23.9% +12.1% 8% 8% -91.5%
≤90d 53 +23.9% +12.1% 8% 8% -91.5%
all 53 +23.9% +12.1% 8% 8% -91.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1101.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.1% 8% -91.5%
10% +1.4% 8% -92.3%
15% ← realistic here -8.4% 8% -93.1%
20% -17.4% 8% -93.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,587) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -100% → late +143% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,991 vs −$1,080 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2,348
Realized+$212,647
Unrealized−$22,563
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses4 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions292
Markets (closed)53 / 5
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$1,170
Trades / day1101.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 292 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 99¢ $100 $198 +$98 (+98%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 90¢ $6 $144 +$138 (+2406%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $12 $130 +$118 (+1007%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $147 $103 −$43 (-30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 14¢ $350 $96 −$254 (-73%)
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,047 $88 −$959 (-92%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $12 $88 +$76 (+653%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 39¢ $2 $83 +$81 (+4860%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $12 $82 +$71 (+605%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $18 $75 +$58 (+331%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 74¢ $2 $72 +$71 (+4115%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $12 $51 +$40 (+341%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 83¢ $0 $47 +$46 (+10128%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $12 $43 +$31 (+269%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $12 $43 +$31 (+269%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 24¢ $1 $43 +$42 (+2953%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 24¢ $2 $38 +$36 (+1780%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 22¢ $2 $35 +$33 (+1620%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $82 $33 −$49 (-60%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $12 $28 +$16 (+137%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $303 $27 −$276 (-91%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 20¢ $1 $27 +$26 (+2403%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $12 $23 +$11 (+95%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 16¢ $1 $22 +$21 (+1955%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 38¢ $2 $22 +$20 (+953%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4,140 −$4,140 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Eric Shmitt as the next United States Attor Jun 20 $11 −$28 -242%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $13 +$7,548 +58057%
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 20 $14 −$561 -3926%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Jay Clayton as the next United States Attor Jun 20 $10 −$28 -289%
Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $860 −$1,522 -177%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $303 −$3,910 -1289%
Will Donald Trump announce Jeff Clark as the next United States Attorn Jun 20 $14 −$28 -197%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $6 −$143 -2228%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 20 $3 +$356 +11328%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto Jun 20 $3 −$24 -835%
Will Mohammad Pakpour be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 20 $0 −$459 -160644%
Will Donald Trump announce Ted Cruz as the next United States Attorney Jun 20 $5 −$25 -555%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States A Jun 20 $3 −$24 -825%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Att Jun 20 $3 −$26 -913%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,414 −$1,573 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $108 +$3,422 +3181%
Will Donald Trump announce Matt Gaetz as the next United States Attorn Jun 20 $14 −$27 -190%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $909 −$1,518 -167%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $811 −$1,329 -164%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,412 −$1,376 -97%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $131 −$961 -734%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 20 $14 −$561 -3926%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will Miguel Uribe Turbay win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 20 $836 −$836 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4,140 −$4,140 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 20 $232 −$421 -182%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Jun 20 $718 −$832 -116%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Mike Lee as the next United States Attorney Jun 20 $14 −$28 -200%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $325 −$862 -265%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 20 $443 −$576 -130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 5h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,348.50 · official $2,349.59 (match) · 3500 history records