Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:44:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc03d…ca87 world 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (243 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day243.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$2
politics 27% $0
other 6% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (243 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 29 -7.2% -16.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -7.2% -16.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -7.2% -16.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover243.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
47.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Open positions10
Markets (closed)29 / 37
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$293
Trades / day243.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 81¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 15 $0 $0 -152%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -113%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $75 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 13 $76 $0 -0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 08 $194 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $182 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 8m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 8m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 21m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 22m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 30m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 30m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 38m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 52m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.56 · official $19.88 · 3500 history records