Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc03e…a2eb weather 251 markets active 0h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,976 (-2%) realized −$4,001 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate91%222W / 23L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$891per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days+$19
30 days−$3,775
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$4,344
other 6% +$324
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -68.0% -71.1% 0% 0% -71.1%
≤30d 150 -0.2% -9.7% 95% 4% -12.0%
≤90d 245 -2.9% -12.1% 91% 6% -11.2%
all 245 -2.9% -12.1% 91% 6% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -11.2%
10% -20.5% 2% -19.7%
15% -28.2% 1% -27.4%
20% -35.3% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$284 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$3,277
Realized−$4,001
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses222 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)245 / 251
History coverage458d
Avg bet$891
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,048 $1,053 +$5 (+0%)
Will Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $907 $912 +$4 (+0%)
Will Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $371 $379 +$8 (+2%)
Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $372 $374 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $340 $344 +$4 (+1%)
Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $213 $215 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$6 -68%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 5? Jun 08 $4 +$5 +116%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 7? Jun 08 $117 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 4? Jun 05 $85 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 4? Jun 05 $747 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 4? Jun 05 $633 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 4? Jun 05 $89 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 3? Jun 04 $574 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 3? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3? Jun 04 $626 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 3? Jun 04 $1,327 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 3? Jun 04 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 3? Jun 04 $814 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 2? Jun 03 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 03 $3,493 +$7 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1,195 +$5 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1,638 +$12 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 2? Jun 03 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $491 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $2,198 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $485 +$10 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1,848 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $567 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1,007 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $298 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1,685 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $326 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $355 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 30? Jun 01 $390 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? Jun 01 $715 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 30? Jun 01 $57 +$13 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 30? Jun 01 $487 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $3,021 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 29? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 29? Jun 01 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 29? Jun 01 $560 +$5 +1%
Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $247 +$3 +1%
Will Hong Kong have between 230-240mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $845 +$33 +4%
Will Hong Kong have between 210-220mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $6,842 +$46 +1%
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $1,503 +$183 +12%
Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 29? Jun 01 $485 +$3 +1%
Will Hong Kong have less than 180mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30? Jun 01 $681 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $3 22m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 5¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $196 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $641 3h
Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 99¢ $104 20h
Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 99¢ $109 20h
Will Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 99¢ $5 23h
Will Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 98¢ $304 24h
Will Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 97¢ $62 24h
Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 99¢ $43 24h
Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 99¢ $330 24h
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 100¢ $772 29h
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 99¢ $40 29h
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 32h
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 32h
Will Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 100¢ $398 32h
Will Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 100¢ $299 32h
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 99¢ $103 32h
Will Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 99¢ $99 32h
Will Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 99¢ $105 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,277.35 · official $3,276.29 (match) · 2008 history records