Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc046…d8f0 sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$655 (+6%) realized +$857 · open −$202
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate66%59W / 31L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$406
7 days+$862
14 days+$579
30 days+$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$1,144
other 29% −$578
crypto 3% −$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +6.0% -4.1% 65% 49% +2.0%
≤30d 90 +4.2% -5.8% 66% 50% -3.9%
≤90d 90 +4.2% -5.8% 66% 50% -3.9%
all 90 +4.2% -5.8% 66% 50% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 50% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 28% -13.1%
15% -23.0% 23% -21.5%
20% -30.6% 12% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$57 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$857
Unrealized−$202
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses59 / 31
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage17d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England leading at halftime? Yes 34¢ $203 $0 −$202 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 −$20 -20%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $190 +$50 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $150 +$48 +32%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $217 +$626 +288%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 −$3 -3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $68 −$66 -97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $187 +$70 +38%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $202 −$145 -72%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $404 −$116 -29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $102 +$102 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $194 +$41 +21%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$49 -48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 +$3 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $103 +$195 +190%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $129 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $811 −$51 -6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $200 +$249 +125%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $47 +$8 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $226 +$47 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $97 +$10 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 +$25 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $127 +$72 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $186 −$100 -54%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $201 +$36 +18%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $245 +$10 +4%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$2 -9%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $121 −$57 -47%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $274 +$18 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$18 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $110 +$53 +48%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $101 +$17 +17%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $192 −$46 -24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $61 +$77 +125%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $100 +$13 +13%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $201 +$23 +11%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $101 +$19 +18%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $126 +$23 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $90 46m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 46m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 46m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 41¢ $80 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $43 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $52 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $24 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $218 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $79 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $22 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 29¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.30 (match) · 460 history records