Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc048…d18f crypto 861 markets active 6d ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$300 (-2%) realized −$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%536W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$256
14 days−$258
30 days−$505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$559
sports 0% −$43
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 -1.5% -10.8% 61% 61% -12.7%
≤30d 745 -4.1% -13.2% 61% 60% -12.1%
≤90d 861 -4.7% -13.8% 62% 56% -12.5%
all 861 -4.7% -13.8% 62% 56% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 56% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 52% -20.8%
15% -29.6% 34% -28.5%
20% -36.5% 2% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses536 / 325
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)861 / 861
History coverage62d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 861 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $33 +$14 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$9 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $34 +$13 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$9 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $79 +$29 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $33 −$21 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$6 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $77 −$52 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$8 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $33 +$13 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$11 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$9 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$8 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $77 −$56 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$22 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$9 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $77 +$31 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $33 −$21 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$10 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$10 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $75 +$34 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$11 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$7 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $33 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $56 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $33 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2075 history records