Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc055…7d0a weather 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,545 (-16%) realized −$1,546 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%31W / 10L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% −$1,485
crypto 20% −$66
other 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -12.2% -20.6% 33% 0% -20.4%
≤30d 3 -12.2% -20.6% 33% 0% -20.4%
≤90d 37 +1.8% -7.9% 78% 32% -30.0%
all 41 +1.4% -8.3% 76% 29% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 29% -24.8%
10% -17.0% 12% -32.0%
15% -25.1% 2% -38.6%
20% -32.4% 2% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$205 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$1,546
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses31 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage109d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? No 82¢ 82¢ $163 $164 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $160 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $59 −$7 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $152 −$45 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? May 07 $222 −$52 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $276 +$22 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 6? May 06 $283 +$24 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 6? May 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 5? May 05 $90 +$26 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 5? May 05 $104 +$10 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on May 5? May 05 $75 +$191 +254%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 4? May 04 $59 +$15 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 4? May 04 $91 −$32 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 3? May 03 $74 +$17 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 3? May 02 $80 −$6 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 2? May 02 $71 +$9 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 1? May 01 $61 +$9 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or higher on April 30 Apr 30 $57 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 29? Apr 29 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 28? Apr 28 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 27 Apr 27 $44 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 27? Apr 27 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 26? Apr 26 $40 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 25? Apr 25 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on April 24? Apr 24 $44 −$8 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 23? Apr 23 $36 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 23? Apr 23 $34 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 22? Apr 22 $61 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 21? Apr 21 $25 +$6 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 19? Apr 19 $1,280 −$1,278 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 19? Apr 19 $779 +$27 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 19? Apr 19 $285 +$15 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on April 18? Apr 18 $767 +$30 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 18? Apr 18 $384 +$16 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 18? Apr 18 $51 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 17? Apr 17 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 17 Apr 17 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 17? Apr 17 $539 −$535 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? Mar 16 $641 +$16 +2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 14 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 04 $652 −$86 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 01 $648 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $164 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $149 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $53 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 66¢ $53 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $23 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $84 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 63¢ $107 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $59 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $152 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? SELL No 87¢ $139 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7? SELL No 90¢ $20 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.30 · official $164.30 (match) · 300 history records