Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C0 0xc057…ea8d other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$69 (+66%) realized +$70 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +98% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +79% what you keep after slip

Net edge+79%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown33%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+78.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+240.1%	+207.7%	100%	100%	+207.7%
≤30d	3	+97.5%	+78.7%	67%	67%	+80.7%
≤90d	3	+97.5%	+78.7%	67%	67%	+80.7%
all	3	+97.5%	+78.7%	67%	67%	+80.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+78.7%	67%	+80.7%
10%	+61.6%	67%	+63.4%
15%	+46.0%	67%	+47.7%
20%	+31.7%	67%	+33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +98% · $-wt +100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$20 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.01 per $1 lost it wins $4.01

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$39

Realized+$70

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)3 / 7

History coverage8d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown33%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	51¢	50¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$21	+$51	+240%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai	Jun 07	$21	−$20	-94%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)	Jun 07	$19	+$29	+152%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	2¢	$11	55m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$11	57m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$11	57m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$11	57m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	72¢	$72	2h
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai	BUY Edmen Shahbazyan	38¢	$21	8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	19¢	$21	8d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)	SELL Tom Nolan	76¢	$48	8d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)	BUY Tom Nolan	27¢	$19	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.75 · official $38.75 (match) · 9 history records