Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc05f…cc00 politics 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%8W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$5
other 31% −$4
sports 13% −$3
culture 8% −$1
crypto 4% $0
world 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.4% -15.3% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -2.1% -11.4% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 91 -4.0% -13.2% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses8 / 83
Open positions5
Markets (closed)91 / 96
History coverage395d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1 $0 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 05 $3 $0 -5%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $107 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $2 $0 -12%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $2 $0 -8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $54 $0 -0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $105 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $117 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 11 $5 $0 -7%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 08 $1 $0 -25%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 08 $1 $0 -30%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 29 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 08 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 5d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 7d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 11d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 12d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.86 · official $51.87 (match) · 450 history records