Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C0 0xc060…4fea crypto 417 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,618 (-7%) realized −$1,618 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%202W / 215L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$85
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,928
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -47.2% -52.3% 19% 19% -30.2%
≤30d 16 -47.2% -52.3% 19% 19% -30.2%
≤90d 114 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 39% -22.1%
all 417 -11.5% -19.9% 48% 41% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 41% -17.7%
10% -27.6% 34% -25.6%
15% -34.6% 28% -32.8%
20% -41.0% 22% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$26 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,618
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses202 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)417 / 417
History coverage247d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 417 Trades
no open positions (111 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$3 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $49 −$22 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $73 +$11 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $31 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 12 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 12 $5 −$4 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 12 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 12 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 12 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 12 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 12 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 11 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 11 $36 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 11 $19 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 11 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 11 $2 +$4 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 11 $19 −$6 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 11 $34 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 11 $12 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 11 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 11 $19 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 11 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 11 $41 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 11 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 11 $22 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $27 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $30 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2451 history records