Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc060…2a5a sports 374 markets active 3d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$852 (-6%) realized −$852 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%184W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$143
30 days−$548
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$872
other 9% −$141
crypto 3% +$16
world 1% +$8
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -7.0% -15.9% 14% 10% -14.4%
≤30d 131 -9.4% -18.0% 27% 17% -20.0%
≤90d 374 -5.2% -14.3% 49% 34% -16.3%
all 374 -5.2% -14.3% 49% 34% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 34% -16.3%
10% -22.5% 22% -24.3%
15% -29.9% 11% -31.6%
20% -36.8% 6% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$852
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses184 / 190
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions0
Markets (closed)374 / 374
History coverage73d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 374 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $11 −$2 -22%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $12 $0 -4%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $12 −$1 -7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $13 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$1 -6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $9 −$4 -42%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $9 −$1 -14%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $48 +$3 +6%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $15 $0 -3%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 −$2 -18%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $9 −$1 -7%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $46 +$6 +12%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $29 −$3 -10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $11 $0 -3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $15 −$1 -9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $30 −$3 -10%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $48 −$8 -16%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $8 +$3 +41%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $12 −$4 -37%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $12 −$3 -21%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $13 −$6 -45%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $16 −$12 -76%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $13 +$2 +15%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $12 +$1 +12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $16 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $2 $0 -19%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $8 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $12 −$1 -4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $15 −$1 -4%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $32 −$1 -4%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $14 −$9 -61%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $16 +$7 +46%
Ilkley: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 08 $16 +$1 +5%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $7 −$1 -12%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $11 +$1 +8%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $8 −$1 -10%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $4 −$1 -16%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $8 $0 -3%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $4 $0 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $11 −$2 -18%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $4 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $16 −$1 -4%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $9 $0 -5%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $5 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 49¢ $9 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 61¢ $11 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $11 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $12 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 70¢ $11 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 74¢ $12 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 52¢ $13 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 52¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 70¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 70¢ $4 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 52¢ $15 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $16 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 31¢ $5 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 52¢ $9 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ $8 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $9 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 78¢ $16 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 78¢ $16 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 77¢ $19 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ $16 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 77¢ $15 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 78¢ $15 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 79¢ $17 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $16 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $8 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 64¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 61¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 64¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 980 history records