Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc062…523c crypto 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-12%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%61W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$7
other 30% −$2
sports 22% −$1
politics 5% −$7
finance 1% $0
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +75.0% +58.4% 50% 50% +58.5%
≤30d 98 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 43% -16.6%
≤90d 143 -12.7% -21.0% 43% 36% -20.1%
all 143 -12.7% -21.0% 43% 36% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 36% -20.1%
10% -28.6% 27% -27.7%
15% -35.5% 20% -34.7%
20% -41.8% 17% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses61 / 82
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage48d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Cabo Verde 28¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +360%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 +$1 +100%
Spread: Singapore (-1.5) May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) May 31 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1 $0 +18%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 +$2 +184%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $2 −$1 -56%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Main Ca May 29 $1 +$3 +292%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1 $0 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 27 $2 −$1 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 27 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Burundi win on 2026-05-26? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Spizzirri (+1.5) May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5) May 25 $1 $0 +30%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 24 $1 $0 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $3 $0 +5%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) May 24 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 23 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 23 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $5 41m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 12h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 47¢ $1 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 13h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 28¢ $1 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 13h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $1 14h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Panama 30¢ $1 14d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Finland 48¢ $1 14d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 14d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 14d
Spread: Singapore (-1.5) BUY Mongolia 40¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? SELL Up 51¢ $1 14d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Iceland 60¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? BUY Up 47¢ $1 14d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Iceland 37¢ $1 15d
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 15d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 15d
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Aoriqileng 23¢ $1 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 16d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Tallison Teixeira 18¢ $1 16d
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Main Ca SELL Matt Schnell 49¢ $4 16d
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Matt Schnell 12¢ $1 18d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 18d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 20¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.80 · official $0.80 (match) · 269 history records