Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C0 0xc063…19a8 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$14
other 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 23 -12.9% -21.2% 52% 48% -7.8%
all 23 -12.9% -21.2% 52% 48% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 48% -7.8%
10% -28.7% 48% -16.6%
15% -35.6% 35% -24.7%
20% -41.9% 30% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage86d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$17 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 08 $222 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 01 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 27 $50 +$50 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 27 $116 +$53 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 27 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 27 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 27 $11 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 27 $12 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 27 $40 +$23 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 27 $60 −$27 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 27 $40 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 27 $110 −$109 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $6 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $222 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $19 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $10 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $50 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $116 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $30 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $32 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $30 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $52 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $40 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $110 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.68 · official $99.68 (match) · 42 history records