Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc066…7302 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$132 (-26%) realized −$136 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$9
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$133
politics 9% −$2
other 9% +$1
sports 3% +$4
economics 3% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +23.1% +11.4% 71% 57% +15.7%
≤30d 37 -21.7% -29.2% 35% 24% -33.2%
≤90d 71 -24.5% -31.7% 32% 18% -35.8%
all 71 -24.5% -31.7% 32% 18% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 18% -35.8%
10% -38.2% 11% -41.9%
15% -44.2% 7% -47.5%
20% -49.7% 6% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)71 / 84
History coverage62d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 83¢ 81¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 21¢ $2 $6 +$5 (+280%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 56¢ 95¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+70%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 82¢ 83¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 30¢ 33¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 75¢ 24¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $19 +$7 +37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +130%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $4 −$2 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $2 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $4 −$2 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $2 $0 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $4 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +59%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $4 −$1 -23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 31 $7 +$1 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $3 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $24 −$23 -95%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 30 $3 −$2 -72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $41 −$18 -43%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? May 29 $4 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $10 −$2 -22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $1 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -81%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $10 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -89%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 +13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $9 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $1 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 09 $4 $0 +2%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $24 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $11 −$11 -98%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? May 01 $3 +$1 +19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 01 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $2 −$1 -30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $7 −$3 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 6h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 6h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 6h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 6h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 6h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $1 6h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $1 8h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $1 11h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $1 11h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $1 11h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $1 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 14h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $1 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 15h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.51 · official $43.52 (match) · 943 history records