Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc06b…76dd sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$616 (-27%) realized −$596 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$634
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -29.7% -36.4% 55% 40% -35.7%
≤30d 42 -29.7% -36.4% 55% 40% -35.7%
≤90d 42 -29.7% -36.4% 55% 40% -35.7%
all 42 -29.7% -36.4% 55% 40% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 40% -35.7%
10% -42.5% 26% -41.9%
15% -48.0% 14% -47.5%
20% -53.1% 7% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$48 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$596
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage3d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Marianne Argyrokastriti 81¢ 95¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+17%)
Ida Wobker vs. Thea Frodin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 64¢ 68¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo Jeffrey John Wolf 71¢ 75¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger Sebastian Sorger 25¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 19 $50 +$17 +34%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell Jun 19 $39 +$5 +12%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $50 +$23 +46%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Yushan Shao Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Natalija Senic Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Ilinca Dalina Amariei Jun 18 $50 +$14 +27%
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $50 +$22 +44%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $101 −$37 -36%
ITF Tulsa: Andrew Fenty vs Victor Tosetto Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Set Handicap: Kitahara (-1.5) vs Lin (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
ITF Tulsa: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Gavin Young Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Diana Marcinkevica Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ida Wobker vs. Thea Frodin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 64¢ $51 14m
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet BUY Dylan Dietrich 89¢ $50 1h
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun BUY Nikita Mashtakov 89¢ $50 1h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger BUY Sebastian Sorger 25¢ $36 2h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 71¢ $50 4h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Naoya Honda 49¢ $51 4h
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura BUY Hiromi Abe 74¢ $50 7h
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo BUY Thasaporn Naklo 63¢ $51 8h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 81¢ $50 8h
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Kenta Miyoshi 89¢ $39 9h
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina BUY Alina Shcherbinina 93¢ $50 16h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Yushan Shao BUY Yushan Shao $9 17h
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick BUY Duncan Chan 43¢ $51 19h
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ $50 19h
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald BUY Weronika Ewald 91¢ $50 20h
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada BUY Emily Zornada 34¢ $51 21h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 82¢ $50 22h
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Natalija Senic BUY Natalija Senic 94¢ $50 23h
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier BUY Pedro Sakamoto 83¢ $50 25h
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth BUY Mara Guth 93¢ $50 27h
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Bonzi 61¢ $51 27h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Adrienn Nagy 90¢ $50 27h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Chenting Zhu 69¢ $50 30h
Set Handicap: Kitahara (-1.5) vs Lin (+1.5) BUY Lin 60¢ $51 31h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Jiaqi Wang 78¢ $50 31h
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Ilinca Dalina Amariei BUY Gina Feistel 78¢ $50 31h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Varvara Panshina 75¢ $50 32h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Nick Hardt 65¢ $51 32h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 68¢ $50 32h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 74¢ $50 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.65 · official $164.65 (match) · 72 history records