Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc06d…6732 weather 58 markets active 5d ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$465 (-23%) realized −$465 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%27W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$48
14 days+$17
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% +$96
world 37% −$561
crypto 1% −$9
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -81.6% -83.3% 0% 0% -81.8%
≤30d 35 -8.1% -16.9% 49% 40% -0.6%
≤90d 58 -15.9% -23.9% 47% 36% -30.5%
all 58 -15.9% -23.9% 47% 36% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 36% -30.5%
10% -31.2% 29% -37.1%
15% -37.8% 24% -43.2%
20% -43.9% 16% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$465
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses27 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage67d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 −$10 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $39 −$19 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 −$17 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $24 −$15 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $47 +$21 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $41 +$49 +118%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $57 −$14 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $8 +$11 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $19 +$20 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 +$54 +274%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $11 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$4 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $26 +$41 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $35 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 1? Jun 02 $89 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 1? Jun 02 $32 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 27? May 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28? May 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 28? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $15 +$12 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 26? May 27 $40 +$15 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $49 +$21 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 24? May 25 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 18? Apr 18 $31 −$23 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 17? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 16? Apr 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 16? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 14? Apr 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 14? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 14? Apr 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on April 13? Apr 13 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 13? Apr 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 12? Apr 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 11? Apr 11 $118 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 10? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? SELL Yes 66¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 252 history records