Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:22:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C0 0xc06e…a76f other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1
other 26% +$6
politics 15% −$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.8%
all 46 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 4% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 4% -6.7%
10% -11.5% 4% -15.6%
15% -20.1% 4% -23.8%
20% -27.9% 4% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.99 per $1 lost it wins $4.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage490d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $11 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $17 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 11 $29 −$1 -2%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci May 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 6? May 09 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 07 $5 $0 -7%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 07 $9 $0 +2%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 07 $7 $0 +4%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 07 $4 +$19 +466%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 28? Mar 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $8 +$7 +89%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? Mar 04 $8 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $12 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $27 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $17 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $25 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $44 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $37 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $37 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $38 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $34 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $43 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $43 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $10 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $17 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $28 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $46 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $36 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $45 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $18 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.71 · official $38.71 (match) · 147 history records