Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C0 0xc072…590b crypto 593 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$143 (+1%) realized +$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate63%374W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$71
14 days+$13
30 days−$684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$487
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +15.0% +4.0% 77% 77% -3.3%
≤30d 372 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 49% -13.9%
≤90d 592 -1.3% -10.7% 63% 51% -11.7%
all 592 -1.3% -10.7% 63% 51% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 51% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 39% -20.2%
15% -27.1% 25% -27.9%
20% -34.2% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses374 / 218
Open positions1
Markets (closed)592 / 593
History coverage39d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 592 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $92 −$24 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $61 −$15 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $61 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$32 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$21 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$15 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$35 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$19 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$9 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $57 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $31 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $39 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $35 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $38 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $34 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.74 · official $26.12 · 1590 history records