Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C0 0xc076…a308 sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate27%15W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$13
politics 15% −$7
other 5% +$5
sports 1% +$6
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.5% +5.4% 40% 20% +0.7%
≤30d 16 -1.2% -10.6% 19% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 44 +4.0% -5.9% 30% 20% -8.8%
all 56 +2.9% -6.9% 27% 16% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 16% -9.6%
10% -15.8% 16% -18.2%
15% -23.9% 16% -26.1%
20% -31.4% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses15 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage596d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $9 +$8 +83%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $83 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $80 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $170 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $89 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$7 +79%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $5 +$5 +104%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $7 +$9 +124%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Jets vs. Stars Apr 06 $7 +$5 +64%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 06 $13 +$16 +122%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 02 $27 −$27 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $43 $0 +1%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 27 $34 +$17 +49%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigers Mar 24 $20 +$15 +78%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $13,527 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $44 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $15 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $9 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $18 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 27d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 27d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $5 28d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $16 29d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $16 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 29d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.52 · official $74.52 (match) · 245 history records