Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc07d…bce2 sports 275 markets active 0h ago coverage 833d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$90 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%86W / 146L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$3
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$45
politics 24% −$16
other 20% −$11
economics 17% −$14
crypto 4% +$11
tech 1% +$5
culture 0% $0
world 0% −$15
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +6.6% -3.5% 49% 40% -9.7%
≤30d 65 +2.3% -7.5% 46% 40% -5.1%
≤90d 67 +1.9% -7.8% 46% 40% -9.7%
all 232 +3.0% -6.8% 37% 30% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 30% -9.7%
10% -15.8% 26% -18.4%
15% -23.9% 19% -26.3%
20% -31.4% 14% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

833d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses86 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions43
Markets (closed)232 / 275
History coverage833d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 17¢ 21¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+22%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 39¢ 48¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 60¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? Yes 54¢ 66¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 33¢ 36¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 59¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 66¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 47¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 40¢ 81¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+102%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 78¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 67¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 59¢ 53¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 18¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -35%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -10%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $7 +$10 +136%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +874%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +27%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $6 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$3 -52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6 +$3 +53%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will BIG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +101%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$5 +86%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +52%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 09 $4 +$1 +42%
Union Espanola vs. Union San Felipe: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $13 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 27m
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $3 29m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $1 46m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 66¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 38¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $2 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 33¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 38¢ $0 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 73¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 2¢ $0 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 34¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 42¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 73¢ $1 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $3 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 41¢ $2 1h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.25 · official $133.89 (match) · 626 history records