Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:11:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc07e…9c76 world 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%42W / 63L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$4
other 28% −$2
politics 3% +$3
crypto 1% +$3
sports 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +1.4% -8.2% 37% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 40 +1.0% -8.7% 38% 8% -9.6%
all 105 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses42 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage472d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $157 $157 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $38 +$3 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $157 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $316 −$3 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $122 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $189 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $457 −$6 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $159 +$5 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$3 +14%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $156 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $146 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $1,116 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $107 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $156 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $6 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $567 −$12 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $490 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $253 −$7 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $158 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $179 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $167 −$2 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $274 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $178 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $361 −$4 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $190 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 28 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $176 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $25 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $168 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $153 +$21 +14%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $23 −$1 -4%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $996 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $1,054 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $1,055 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $28 −$2 -8%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $6 $0 +4%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $79 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $78 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $138 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $157 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $109 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $31 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $140 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $103 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $65 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $177 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $114 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $122 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $28 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $22 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $97 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.08 · official $157.08 (match) · 375 history records