Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc080…f9a0 sports 387 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$827 (+3%) realized +$830 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate61%233W / 150L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$254est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$1,148
14 days−$785
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$908
other 29% −$398
crypto 3% −$33
finance 3% −$102
world 2% −$86
culture 0% +$88
politics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -6.1% -15.1% 52% 41% -46.7%
≤30d 60 +4.2% -5.7% 62% 47% -10.4%
≤90d 258 -2.6% -11.9% 60% 43% -8.0%
all 383 -3.0% -12.3% 61% 45% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 45% -8.4%
10% -20.7% 33% -17.1%
15% -28.3% 23% -25.1%
20% -35.4% 16% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$34 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized+$830
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses233 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$254
Open positions4
Markets (closed)383 / 387
History coverage105d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$35 -34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $102 +$96 +95%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$47 -46%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$17 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$3 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $22 +$58 +262%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1,111 −$1,111 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 −$25 -82%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$36 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $229 +$32 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$24 -23%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $101 +$69 +68%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $46 +$50 +109%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $28 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $44 +$47 +106%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$33 +66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,000 +$146 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $101 −$99 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $102 +$4 +4%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $101 +$89 +88%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$34 +69%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $52 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $893 +$76 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 9? Jun 10 $104 −$104 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $102 +$118 +116%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $101 −$8 -8%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $101 +$20 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$15 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $101 −$18 -18%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $101 +$23 +23%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3? Jun 03 $102 +$22 +21%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $203 −$203 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 1? Jun 01 $104 −$12 -12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 1? Jun 01 $61 +$16 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Ella Seidel May 25 $101 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $99 48m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 50m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 50m
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 50m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $67 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $65 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $198 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 50¢ $102 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $55 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $68 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $54 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $51 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 11¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,061 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.69 · official $294.69 (match) · 868 history records