Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C0 0xc083…65df crypto 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%79W / 1L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$10
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
other 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 24 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 80 -0.5% -9.9% 99% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.98 per $1 lost it wins $6.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses79 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage241d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $114 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 19 $4 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 19 $12 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? Jun 05 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 19? May 21 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6? May 08 $113 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 02 $4 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $116 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026? Apr 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? Apr 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 11 $120 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 1? Apr 03 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 21? Mar 22 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 20 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $118 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 8? Mar 13 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 07 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 20? Feb 21 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 16? Feb 17 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 15? Feb 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 11? Feb 11 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on February 3 Feb 04 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 1? Feb 02 $116 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on January 24? Jan 24 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on January 21? Jan 22 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 18? Jan 19 $119 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $114 1h
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? BUY No 98¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $103 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $106 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $105 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $4 26d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $3 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $109 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $114 32d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $5 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 45d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $3 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $116 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $109 62d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 62d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $113 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $115 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $111 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? BUY No 93¢ $4 73d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $3 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $120 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $120 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $116 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $118 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $114 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $114 88d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 98¢ $3 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $122 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.92 · official $121.92 (match) · 167 history records