Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc086…8128 sports 284 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$104 (+0%) realized −$42 · open +$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%159W / 121L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$435est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$863now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days−$164
14 days−$164
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$139
crypto 4% −$160
other 2% −$38
world 1% −$136
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -5.3% -14.3% 56% 52% -13.3%
≤30d 39 -8.2% -17.0% 54% 49% -14.0%
≤90d 200 +2.4% -7.4% 55% 41% -10.7%
all 280 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 42% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 42% -10.8%
10% -18.6% 27% -19.4%
15% -26.5% 18% -27.1%
20% -33.7% 9% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$40 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$863
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$146
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses159 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$435
Open positions4
Markets (closed)280 / 284
History coverage106d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 83¢ 100¢ $694 $836 +$142 (+20%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 15¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+107%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $165 −$129 -78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $134 +$53 +39%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $499 +$105 +21%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $98 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $209 +$104 +49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $31 −$4 -12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$49 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $50 +$17 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $51 +$20 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $59 +$17 +28%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 +$39 +190%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $628 +$65 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $721 −$200 -28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 −$25 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner Jun 14 $561 −$154 -28%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $83 −$83 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $59 +$14 +24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $70 +$71 +101%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 18 $81 −$5 -7%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $399 +$7 +2%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner May 17 $111 +$45 +41%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner May 17 $82 +$29 +36%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $113 −$32 -28%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 17 $260 −$247 -95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $199 +$61 +30%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 17 $55 −$31 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $429 −$50 -12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $147 +$56 +38%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $273 +$70 +26%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $45 −$40 -90%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 16 $108 +$34 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $687 −$52 -8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $38 +$49 +129%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 15 $41 +$48 +118%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $258 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 2 Winner May 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 1 Winner May 15 $75 −$8 -11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 15 $345 −$154 -45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $82 +$13 +16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 15 $194 −$13 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 25m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 43m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 43m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 43m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 13¢ $36 50m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 83¢ $697 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $165 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 65¢ $165 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 72¢ $186 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $186 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $134 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $134 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 72¢ $98 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 9¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 92¢ $604 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 87¢ $398 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 47¢ $97 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $200 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $74 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $67 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $76 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $100 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $46 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 86¢ $50 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $863.38 · official $863.38 (match) · 1034 history records