Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:34:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C0 0xc08a…92a4 sports 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,250 (+19%) realized +$1,260 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%20W / 47L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$736
7 days+$455
14 days+$566
30 days+$566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$573
other 29% −$169
crypto 3% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -4.9% -13.9% 28% 28% -1.5%
≤30d 45 -3.4% -12.6% 29% 29% +0.2%
≤90d 67 -15.9% -23.9% 30% 30% -3.9%
all 67 -15.9% -23.9% 30% 30% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 30% -3.9%
10% -31.2% 30% -13.1%
15% -37.8% 30% -21.5%
20% -43.9% 27% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$75 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized+$1,260
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses20 / 47
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage88d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $489 $484 −$5 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $601 −$591 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $69 −$67 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $103 +$53 +52%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $813 +$1,003 +123%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $304 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 +$204 +100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $116 −$113 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$201 +197%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 +$1,002 +976%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $254 +$246 +97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $179 −$176 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $98 +$81 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$231 +226%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 +$166 +649%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$168 +165%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $98 +$111 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Dubrovnik: Teodora Kostovic vs Alina Charaeva Mar 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $30 +$41 +138%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $496 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $205 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 4¢ $103 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $396 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $102 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $69 10h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 10h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 13h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 22h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 22h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 11¢ $150 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,816 25h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $813 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $304 30h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 30h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $407 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $116 33h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 33h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $678.67 · official $678.67 (match) · 95 history records