trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 23 | +4.0% | -5.9% | 91% | 4% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.9% | 4% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -14.9% | 4% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -23.1% | 4% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -30.7% | 4% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $572 | $572 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 66¢ | 79¢ | $65 | $78 | +$13 (+20%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $581 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? | May 22 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? | May 22 | $477 | +$4 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? | Apr 07 | $565 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? | Apr 01 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? | Apr 01 | $519 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | Mar 23 | $1,014 | +$13 | +1% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 18 | $146 | +$12 | +8% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? | Mar 18 | $403 | +$4 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | Mar 17 | $598 | −$62 | -10% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Mar 12 | $464 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? | Mar 09 | $462 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | Mar 02 | $165 | $0 | +0% |
| Magic vs. Suns | Feb 23 | $106 | +$94 | +89% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? | Feb 21 | $457 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? | Feb 15 | $453 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? | Feb 12 | $463 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? | Feb 11 | $464 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Feb 09 | $451 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Feb 05 | $458 | −$1 | -0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 28 | $439 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | Jan 27 | $899 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 19 | $563 | +$1 | +0% |