Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc094…c8d4 other 495 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 155d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,130 (-14%) realized −$15,031 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate44%183W / 237L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,913now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 155d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$1,443
politics 24% −$565
culture 12% +$1,619
world 10% −$957
sports 7% +$55
crypto 5% −$97
economics 5% +$324
tech 4% +$121
finance 1% −$1,079
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -31.2% -37.7% 12% 6% -14.0%
≤30d 66 -31.2% -37.7% 12% 6% -14.0%
≤90d 80 -25.2% -32.3% 19% 10% -16.7%
all 420 +21.4% +9.9% 44% 25% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 25% -11.9%
10% -0.7% 20% -20.3%
15% -10.3% 18% -28.0%
20% -19.1% 16% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +37% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$54 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,913
Realized−$15,031
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses183 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions75
Markets (closed)420 / 495
History coverage155d ⚠
Avg bet$213
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 75 History 420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? No 93¢ 93¢ $319 $319 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Sweden 90¢ 90¢ $243 $242 −$1 (-1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 38¢ $219 $201 −$18 (-8%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $180 $181 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $145 $167 +$21 (+15%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $158 $161 +$3 (+2%)
Will Thibaut Courtois win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hylo launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 93¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 38¢ $10 $34 +$23 (+226%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 92¢ 70¢ $40 $30 −$9 (-24%)
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in June? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $21 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $16 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $13 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $13 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $23 −$16 -70%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $13 −$4 -29%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $276 −$2 -1%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $539 −$40 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $16 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 −$13 -64%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $84 −$4 -5%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $132 −$10 -7%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $64 −$10 -16%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $83 −$44 -53%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $361 −$361 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $6 $0 -6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $109 −$48 -44%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 19 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $104 +$6 +6%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 19 $13,736 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -19%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 19 $135 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Iraq? Jun 18 $6 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $9 −$4 -51%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -46%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $90 −$35 -39%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $103 −$5 -5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will David Raya win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Sweden 90¢ $63 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Sweden 90¢ $90 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Sweden 90¢ $90 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $6 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 26¢ $5 6h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 27¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 7h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 7h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 8h
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $90 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 10h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 10h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 10h
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $90 11h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 11h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 92¢ $85 13h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 92¢ $92 13h
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $25 13h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 92¢ $54 13h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 92¢ $42 14h
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,912.99 · official $1,912.41 (match) · 3500 history records