Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc094…d18f world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$4
other 23% +$13
politics 9% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 4% −$3
crypto 4% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.6% -8.0% 80% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 13 +13.2% +2.4% 54% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 13 +13.2% +2.4% 54% 8% -9.1%
all 42 +7.0% -3.2% 40% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 7% -8.6%
10% -12.5% 5% -17.4%
15% -20.9% 5% -25.4%
20% -28.7% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage322d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 25 $63 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $54 +$2 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $86 +$2 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $54 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $203 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $83 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $125 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Mar 24 $10 +$12 +112%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 18 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 15 $4 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 14 $61 −$3 -5%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 07 $6 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $64 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $63 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $24 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $54 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $34 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $56 38h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $41 41h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $13 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $61 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $56 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $4 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $19 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $39 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $28 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $28 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $14 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $52 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $27 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $27 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records