Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:57:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc09d…36d6 crypto 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,811 (+49%) realized +$2,811 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate70%164W / 69L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$10
sports 38% +$2,800
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.5% -27.2% 80% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 28 -3.1% -12.3% 96% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 89 -0.9% -10.3% 98% 0% -9.2%
all 233 -28.1% -34.9% 70% 0% +35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 0% +35.1%
10% -41.1% 0% +22.1%
15% -46.8% 0% +10.3%
20% -52.0% 0% -0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +49% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$0 · ×811.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1928.51 per $1 lost it wins $1928.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$2,811
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses164 / 69
Open positions2
Markets (closed)233 / 235
History coverage180d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? May 30 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $24 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22? May 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 21? May 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 19 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2? May 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 1? May 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $27 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $26 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $26 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $26 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $25 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $25 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $24 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $24 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $24 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.29 · official $29.29 (match) · 518 history records