Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C0 0xc09f…ea40 crypto 162 markets active 3d ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$771 (-30%) realized −$771 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%86W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$266
14 days−$920
30 days−$788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$823
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -19.4% -27.1% 38% 38% -32.7%
≤30d 105 +8.6% -1.7% 78% 74% -38.0%
≤90d 108 +9.1% -1.3% 79% 74% -37.9%
all 162 -13.8% -22.0% 53% 49% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 49% -38.4%
10% -29.5% 41% -44.3%
15% -36.3% 21% -49.7%
20% -42.5% 9% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$771
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses86 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage188d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 14 $183 −$124 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -37%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 14 $169 −$96 -57%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 14 $145 −$70 -49%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 14 $172 −$90 -52%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $87 +$39 +45%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $111 +$50 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $87 +$37 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$14 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$16 +64%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$11 +38%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$4 +41%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 07 $349 −$339 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 07 $16 −$16 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 07 $238 −$231 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 07 $16 −$16 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 07 $111 −$108 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? Jun 07 $16 −$16 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 07 $39 −$38 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? Jun 06 $150 +$86 +58%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$3 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $9 +$3 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $15 +$11 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 12? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 12? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 25? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 30? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 29? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 31? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$4 +69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$2 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $15 +$4 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $9 +$3 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$1 +39%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $9 +$7 +74%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? Jun 03 $7 +$2 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $8 +$3 +32%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 +$5 +46%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $9 +$6 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 52¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? SELL No 24¢ $59 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 53¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? SELL No 31¢ $73 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? SELL No 37¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 35¢ $74 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? SELL No 33¢ $82 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 60¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 60¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 60¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 60¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2492 history records