Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc09f…ab53 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$1
other 33% −$2
politics 10% $0
economics 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.5% -13.6% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 17% 0% -9.4%
all 47 -0.5% -10.0% 28% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 6% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage254d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $18 −$2 -10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $73 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $192 +$5 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $106 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $7 +$2 +30%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $36 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Nov 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Oct 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $6 $0 -3%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 09 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $64 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $65 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $18 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $18 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $29 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 43h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $11 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $56 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $33 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.58 · official $64.12 (match) · 200 history records