Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:52:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C0 0xc0a2…3c41 sports 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,060 (+10%) realized +$3,034 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%127W / 102L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$364est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$265
7 days+$61
14 days+$339
30 days+$628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$2,486
other 4% +$91
tech 0% +$17
crypto 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 40% -2.8%
≤30d 41 +12.6% +1.9% 54% 54% -0.7%
≤90d 198 +12.4% +1.7% 54% 54% -2.6%
all 229 +15.2% +4.2% 55% 55% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 55% -1.8%
10% -5.8% 55% -11.2%
15% -14.9% 54% -19.8%
20% -23.2% 50% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$117 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$3,034
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses127 / 102
Est. fees paid−$364
Open positions6
Markets (closed)229 / 235
History coverage136d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $20 $36 +$16 (+80%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+77%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $102 +$154 +151%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $239 +$146 +61%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 19 $255 −$10 -4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $203 −$203 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $102 +$71 +69%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $203 +$130 +64%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $204 −$204 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $155 +$117 +75%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $203 +$136 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $153 −$153 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $204 +$181 +89%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $204 −$204 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $203 +$109 +54%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $254 +$143 +56%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $254 +$177 +69%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $255 +$217 +85%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $153 −$153 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $102 +$80 +78%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $153 +$130 +85%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $204 +$147 +72%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 30 $204 −$204 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $51 +$77 +151%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 May 29 $203 +$96 +47%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 May 28 $203 +$100 +49%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $153 −$153 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $153 +$130 +85%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 26 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 25 $10 +$67 +653%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 24 $153 −$153 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals May 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $204 −$204 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 May 23 $405 +$126 +31%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 22 $204 +$250 +122%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 21 $102 +$106 +104%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 May 21 $335 +$158 +47%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 May 20 $204 +$181 +89%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 20 $407 +$295 +72%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves May 18 $403 +$272 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 16h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 39¢ $102 16h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $245 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $239 29h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 60¢ $203 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $102 9d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $255 9d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 60¢ $203 10d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $155 10d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $204 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $203 13d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 56¢ $153 13d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $204 13d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $203 14d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $204 14d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 63¢ $254 16d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $254 16d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $255 17d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $153 20d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $153 20d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $102 20d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $102 20d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $204 21d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $204 21d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Chicago Cubs 39¢ $51 22d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 67¢ $203 23d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 66¢ $203 23d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 55¢ $153 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.64 · official $195.64 (match) · 600 history records