Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc0a4…72ad other 429 markets active 0h ago coverage 504d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,394 (+6%) realized +$3,311 · open +$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%287W / 130L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$1,272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$147
14 days+$159
30 days+$592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$2,900
crypto 12% +$242
sports 10% +$407
finance 2% −$404
world 1% +$89
culture 0% +$94
politics 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +2.8% -7.0% 74% 56% -7.2%
≤30d 40 +20.6% +9.1% 75% 60% -0.5%
≤90d 96 +6.7% -3.5% 71% 62% -3.6%
all 417 +8.7% -1.6% 69% 60% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 60% -3.9%
10% -11.1% 47% -13.1%
15% -19.6% 32% -21.5%
20% -27.5% 20% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$59 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

504d coverage
Net worth$1,272
Realized+$3,311
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses287 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions12
Markets (closed)417 / 429
History coverage504d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 89¢ 88¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $157 $159 +$2 (+1%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 94¢ $111 $132 +$22 (+20%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $70 $92 +$22 (+32%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 82¢ $65 $82 +$18 (+27%)
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 95¢ $54 $66 +$12 (+21%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-4%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 63¢ $62 $63 +$2 (+3%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 68¢ 78¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 65¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 46¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+57%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Kane 40¢ 31¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $302 +$28 +9%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $41 +$9 +21%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 −$8 -29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $457 +$49 +11%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$71 +70%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 21 $15 +$7 +46%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $80 +$20 +25%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $368 +$68 +18%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 21 $53 −$6 -12%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $156 +$41 +26%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $371 +$45 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $351 +$20 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Remo Freuler: 2+ shots Jun 18 $17 +$8 +48%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $135 −$134 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 +$12 +6%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $281 +$19 +7%
Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $450 +$102 +23%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$12 +40%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $283 +$27 +10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$26 +140%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $37 +$15 +40%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$3 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $245 +$71 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $478 −$181 -38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $385 +$93 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$20 -61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $77 +$12 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $23 −$23 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $54 +$146 +270%
Will Monza achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 s Jun 01 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Cremonese be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season? May 25 $9 +$14 +159%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 25 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Catanzaro achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026- May 17 $103 −$101 -98%
Spread: Como 1907 (-2.5) May 17 $280 +$48 +17%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 16 $60 +$19 +31%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $30 +$12 +40%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5) May 14 $145 +$26 +18%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $15 +$11 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 89¢ $502 17m
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $50 23m
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 41¢ $20 22h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $41 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $28 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $201 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $457 26h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 58¢ $101 26h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 84¢ $368 28h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 0¢ $0 29h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 81¢ $130 30h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 31h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 24¢ $47 31h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY No 80¢ $80 31h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $12 31h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $33 31h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $15 31h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 31h
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 99¢ $197 31h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $371 43h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $371 43h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $351 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $301 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $50 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $158 3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 51¢ $4 3d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 24¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 100¢ $300 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,271.78 · official $1,271.78 (match) · 2130 history records