Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C0 0xc0a5…1e0f crypto 2259 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$152 (-5%) realized −$152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate69%1144W / 507L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day154.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days+$109
14 days+$378
30 days+$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$822
weather 5% +$10
other 4% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 871 +15.1% +4.2% 60% 60% -0.5%
≤30d 1651 +28.6% +16.4% 69% 67% +13.6%
≤90d 1651 +28.6% +16.4% 69% 67% +13.6%
all 1651 +28.6% +16.4% 69% 67% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover154.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.4% 67% +13.6%
10% ← realistic here +5.2% 67% +2.7%
15% -4.9% 65% -7.2%
20% -14.2% 64% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1144 / 507
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1651 / 2259
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day154.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1651 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 50¢ 75¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 52¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 51¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -982%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 8m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 28m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 39m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 43m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 53m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.78 · official $2.94 (match) · 3500 history records