Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc0a5…4024 sports 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$712 (-11%) realized −$710 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%39W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$459
7 days−$153
14 days−$153
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$139
other 30% −$656
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% −$72
crypto 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.8% +7.5% 67% 67% -15.7%
≤30d 6 +18.8% +7.5% 67% 67% -15.7%
≤90d 6 +18.8% +7.5% 67% 67% -15.7%
all 97 -18.0% -25.8% 40% 38% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 38% -23.1%
10% -32.9% 36% -30.5%
15% -39.4% 35% -37.2%
20% -45.3% 30% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$46 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized−$710
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses39 / 58
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage200d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $277 $275 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $532 −$251 -47%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $444 +$88 +20%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $221 +$223 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $155 +$66 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $589 −$585 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $316 +$306 +97%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 26 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Dec 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 22? Dec 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 22 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4AM ET Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 22 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5 Dec 22 $21 +$17 +83%
Spread: Rockets (-11.5) Dec 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-3.5) Dec 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Dec 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Canucks vs. Bruins Dec 21 $25 +$37 +150%
Spread: Eagles (-6.5) Dec 21 $35 +$29 +82%
Spread: 76ers (-2.5) Dec 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Dec 20 $14 +$36 +270%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Dec 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $25 −$2 -8%
Spread: Eagles (-5.5) Dec 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Dec 20 $30 +$25 +85%
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) Dec 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Dec 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5 Dec 19 $30 +$27 +88%
Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5 Dec 19 $35 +$31 +88%
Spread: Heat (-6.5) Dec 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Devils vs. Golden Knights Dec 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Dec 18 $20 +$22 +108%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-17? Dec 18 $60 +$47 +79%
Kings vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5 Dec 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Dec 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Dec 12 $90 −$52 -58%
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5) Dec 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-9.5) Dec 11 $78 −$78 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 241.5 Dec 11 $70 +$62 +88%
Spread: Lakers (-6.5) Dec 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Dec 11 $80 +$4 +6%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 10 $112 +$71 +64%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $65 −$65 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5 Dec 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $281 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $281 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $531 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $532 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $444 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $443 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $221 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $221 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $155 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $589 42h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $623 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $316 2d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 174d
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $73 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $12 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 22? BUY Down 14¢ $5 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $11 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $20 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 178d
Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5 BUY Over 55¢ $21 179d
Spread: Rockets (-11.5) BUY Rockets 53¢ $35 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.16 · official $275.16 (match) · 205 history records