Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C0 0xc0aa…ee4c crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$470 (+12%) realized +$945 · open −$475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$283
sports 41% +$355
other 3% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +70.0% +53.8% 80% 80% +65.4%
≤30d 5 +70.0% +53.8% 80% 80% +65.4%
≤90d 27 +60.9% +45.6% 56% 52% +2.6%
all 27 +60.9% +45.6% 56% 52% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.6% 52% +2.6%
10% +31.7% 41% -7.2%
15% +18.9% 37% -16.2%
20% +7.3% 26% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +131% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$74 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized+$945
Unrealized−$475
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage68d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 24¢ $898 $423 −$475 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $304 +$296 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$160 +105%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $116 −$113 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $193 +$259 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 14 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 14 $88 +$37 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 14 $278 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 14 $247 +$32 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 14 $203 +$55 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 14 $60 +$141 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$14 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 11 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 11 $139 +$64 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 11 $100 +$39 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 11 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 11 $126 +$66 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 11 $112 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 11 $92 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $911 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $116 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $304 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $152 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $452 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $193 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $225 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $100 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $124 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $88 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $289 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $278 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $279 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $247 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $10 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $259 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $203 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $10 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $10 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $10 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.96 · official $422.96 (match) · 59 history records